Ukraine's Bold ATACMS Strike: A New Era

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Ukraine’s First-Ever ATACMS Strike in Russia, Explained | WSJ

The Wall Street Journal

Nov 19, 2024

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News & Politics

Ukraine fired long-range missiles into Russia

  1. Ukraine has launched long-range missiles provided by the United States into Russian territory, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The target was an ammunition storage facility located near the Russian city of Karachev, approximately 75 miles from the Ukrainian border.
  2. This attack is notable as it is the first instance of Ukraine using long-range, NATO-made arms against Russia. The Kremlin had previously issued warnings that such actions would be considered a major escalation, indicating the potential for increased tensions and retaliatory measures.
  3. The ammunition storage facility hit by the missiles is one of many Russian military assets that have now become potential targets for Ukraine. This development suggests a shift in Ukraine's military strategy, potentially aiming to disrupt Russian supply lines and weaken their military capabilities.
  4. The use of Western arms on Russian territory signifies a new phase in the conflict, with implications for future military engagements and diplomatic relations. It raises questions about the potential responses from Russia and the international community, as well as the future trajectory of the war.

ATACMS and Storm Shadow

  1. Ukraine has been requesting its allies to lift restrictions on using Western long-range weapons to strike inside Russia. In November, President Biden approved this request, allowing Ukraine to use these weapons.
  2. The approval includes the use of ATACMS, a surface-to-surface missile system that can be launched from a mobile vehicle and has a range of up to 190 miles, allowing strikes deep into Russian territory.
  3. Additionally, the decision may permit the use of British/French cruise missiles, such as Storm Shadow or SCALP, which have a range of around 155 miles and have been used to target Russian command bunkers, naval headquarters, ammunition dumps, and bridges.
  4. Western allies were initially hesitant to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia due to fears of escalating the conflict. However, the situation changed after North Korean troops joined Russian forces, prompting a shift in U.S. policy.
  5. The ongoing conflict, now approaching its third year, continues to strain Ukraine's economy and population, with Russia incrementally gaining territory and impacting Ukraine's ability to provide heating as winter approaches.

New targets and logistics

  1. Ukraine has expanded its military capabilities by using long-range U.S. missiles to strike targets inside Russia, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. This is the first time such NATO-made arms have been used in this manner, targeting an ammunition storage facility near Karachev.
  2. The Institute for the Study of War reports that hundreds of Russian military objects are now within the range of Ukrainian forces, thanks to these new capabilities. This development poses a strategic threat to Russian military operations.
  3. Russia's Air Force has been a significant threat to Ukrainian forces, particularly with the use of glide bombs in areas like Avdiivka. By pushing back the Russian Air Force, Ukraine aims to enhance the safety of its troops.
  4. Ukraine has previously targeted Russian military assets using long-range drones, including a notable attack on an arsenal nearly 300 miles from the Ukraine border. This demonstrates Ukraine's increasing ability to extend its reach into Russian territory.
  5. The strategic goal for Ukraine in striking deep into Russia is to pressure Moscow into seeking peace. Analysts suggest that Ukraine might also target Russian positions in the Kursk region, where a large number of Russian and North Korean troops are stationed.

What’s next?

  1. The Biden administration is accelerating support to Ukraine, aiming to provide as much military aid as possible before a potential shift in U.S. policy with Donald Trump's expected return to the presidency in January. This includes supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine.
  2. Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance are anticipated to advocate for negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict, which may alter the current U.S. approach to military support for Ukraine.
  3. Despite Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range missiles, this capability has not been decisive in ending the conflict. Russia continues to exert pressure on Ukraine and make territorial gains, though at a slow pace.
  4. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued warnings that Ukraine's use of long-range weapons to strike inside Russia constitutes crossing a 'red line.' However, historically, the Kremlin has often not responded when such 'red lines' have been crossed by the West.