Forecasting Florida's Fall Weather

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Southwest Florida Weather Forecast

WINK News

Oct 9, 2024

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News & Politics

Hurricane Milton impacts Southwest Florida

  1. Meteorologist Zach Malone reports on the current weather conditions in Southwest Florida, focusing on the impact of Hurricane Milton. The storm's northern rain bands are moving in, and the eye wall is visible to the south and west, indicating the hurricane's proximity.
  2. The most significant rainfall is affecting Lee County, including areas like Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel, and Fort Myers Beach. Residents in evacuation zones A and B in Lee County are under mandatory evacuation orders and should expect heavy rain during evacuation.
  3. Hurricane Milton is a Category 5 hurricane, showing signs of strengthening as the eye wall becomes smaller. The hurricane is moving northeast at 14 miles per hour, an increase in speed from the previous update, which is a positive development in terms of storm progression.
  4. The forecast track of Hurricane Milton has shifted slightly northward, now heading more towards the intersection of Sarasota County and Charlotte County. This change in direction is seen as a positive development, potentially altering the storm's impact on the region.

Hurricane to hit Sarasota as Category 4

  1. The storm is expected to make landfall in Sarasota County late tonight, around 1 to 2 AM, with models consistently predicting this path.
  2. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to make landfall as a Category 4 major hurricane, an update from the previous Category 3 prediction.
  3. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Lee, Charlotte, DeSoto, and Highlands counties due to the expected force of the winds.
  4. Tropical storm warnings are issued for Glades, Hendry, and Collier counties, with tropical storm force winds expected to arrive as early as 2 PM.
  5. Hurricane force winds are anticipated to arrive later tonight, around 11 PM to midnight, as the storm moves ashore.
  6. The storm's center might shift 10 to 20 miles south, affecting the location of the strongest winds.
  7. Residents are advised to shelter in place by noon to 3 PM as conditions will worsen throughout the afternoon and evening.
  8. Wind gusts are expected to reach 40 to 60 mph by 7 PM and 50 to 60 mph by 9 PM, increasing as the night progresses.

Severe weather with high winds and storm surge

  1. Wind gusts are expected to reach 75 to 80 MPH in Charlie County and Sarasota County, with a storm making landfall in Sarasota County. This could shift slightly south, increasing wind gusts overnight into the next day.
  2. An onshore west wind will persist near high tide, affecting tide values throughout the night. Bands of rain will arrive throughout the day, with the heaviest rain expected early in the afternoon.
  3. There is a possibility of tornadoes throughout the afternoon and evening, with the storm expected to make landfall near Sarasota County between midnight and 2 AM.
  4. Storm surge is a significant concern, with levels expected to rise between 8 to 12 feet in Lee County and 10 to 15 feet along the Charlotte County coast. This surge will coincide with high tide times, particularly between 4-6 AM.
  5. High tide in Lee County is expected between 5-8 AM, which could exacerbate the storm surge threat as water rushes in during these times.
  6. A high wind warning is anticipated as the eye wall of the storm moves onshore, affecting Sarasota, Charlotte, DeSoto, and Highlands counties later tonight into Thursday.

High tornado risk in Southwest Florida

  1. The severe weather outlook for Southwest Florida is at a level 2 out of 5 for southern and eastern Hendry County and most of Collier County, including Clewiston and parts of the Lake Okeechobee waterfront. This indicates a moderate risk of severe weather.
  2. A more significant concern is the level 3 out of 5 severe weather outlook, which is the highest seen in the area by the meteorologist since starting work there. This level indicates numerous severe weather threats, with a primary focus on tornado risks today into tomorrow morning.
  3. The main impacts expected are tornadoes, damaging winds, and coastal surges. However, the primary concern is the risk of tornadoes, which is emphasized in the severe weather outlook.
  4. Currently, the weather is rainy, with heavy rain and strong storms observed in areas like Fort Myers and Cape Coral. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the morning, with rain and storms moving northward.
  5. Typical of tropical systems, there will be periods of calm with dry spells, but more rain is expected as bands of storms continue to move through the area, especially in the late morning and early afternoon.
  6. The tornado threat is expected to increase in the early to mid-afternoon, continuing into the evening across Southwest Florida. Later tonight, the focus will shift to coastal surges.

Tornado precautions and weather forecast updates

  1. The rain is subsiding in most of southwest Florida, but tornado potential is increasing, especially from late morning to early afternoon, reaching a moderate level of 3 out of 5. This risk will decrease as the night progresses.
  2. During a tornado, it is crucial to avoid mobile homes, vehicles, and overpasses. If on the road during a tornado warning, seek shelter in a sturdy structure like a gas station.
  3. Avoid staying in manufactured homes, on the second floor of buildings, or near windows. The safest place is on the first floor or in an interior room away from windows.
  4. The 7-day forecast indicates drier conditions are expected following the storm, aiding recovery efforts in the affected areas.